To be honest, right now, I'm leaning towards the under, for a couple of reasons. First off, the odds. To get +140 on an 50% bet, is wonderful. Secondly, this movie is getting AWFUL reviews, and, it will STILL be competing with X2, in only its second weekend. I don't think anyone wants to go see Eddie Murphy anymore. The man, at one point, was very talented, but has since made some of the worst movies I can ever remember watching.
I haven't made a play yet, but, I'm leaning heavily towards the under on this one. If I DO go ahead and make a play, I will let everyone know.
JP
I haven't made a play yet, but, I'm leaning heavily towards the under on this one. If I DO go ahead and make a play, I will let everyone know.
JP
you're right, -170 may be too much to lay here. Looking at the numbers that the Nutty Professor 2 was able to put up, though, doesn't make the under very appealing either. That movie did get good reviews, but I think people have been enjoying the trailers for DD. Sometimes that's all a movie needs to be a success... I mean, look at Malibus Most Wanted. Eddie Murphy's box office draw is in question, sure... but I'm thinking that a return to kid's movies will be a small boost to his carreer, once again, poor reviews notwistanding. Any kid's flick with fart jokes and some kid dressed up in a flash costume belching soap bubbles looks like a sure-fire hit to me, lol.
I agree with you on MOST of what you said. However, here are two points that can't be ignored. I'm not sure who the Nutty Professor was competing with, but, Day Care is competing with possibly the biggest movie of the year (X2), in only its second week. The second point that must be considered is this. I think that we agree that this could go either way, and that 25 million is a pretty sharp number. Having said that, in a scenario like that one, getting +140, as opposed to laying -170 is a much better play in the long run.
JP
JP
Hey, Oren, what did you mean when you said that it looks like it's going over? I read that Friday estimates are right at 8.2 mil. If you use a 3 multiplier, it would mean 24.6 mil, which is under the 25 mil, which I did make a small play on. And, it's just the type of movie, with awful reviews, which people won't like, and will likely warn all their friend/family to stay away from on Saturday and Sunday. I think the under is probably looking pretty good right now.
JP
JP
it was merely speculation from friday night "theater reports" in the HSX forums. Some people were overly optimistic by the crowds they saw at theaters. If it follows the gain and drop Bringin' Down the House had, it will fall somewhere around 26, just where Mojo has it. And the kiddy appeal means more people on Saturday, I guess, but I think you're probably right, if it goes over 26 I'll consider myself lucky.
